Preparing for tsunamis │ The Science of Disasters with Ilan Kelman

Can nothing stop the massive destruction wrought by tsunamis? Why has it taken so long to come up with adequate warning systems, and are they enough? Stay with me, Ilan Kelman, to find out in the latest episode of our new series, The Science of Disasters.

26th of December 2004, a massive shallow earthquake off the coast of Indonesia shatters the morning. Indigenous people on an island right beside the epicentre can barely stand up, but they know what's coming next. After the shaking stops, they evacuate to the hills, waiting for the wall of water. Others are not so lucky. Within minutes, across Aceh more than 130 000 die, including Indonesian soldiers fighting Aceh separatists and Aceh separatists trapped in their prison cells. The wave crosses the Indian Ocean, hours later killing people as far as way as Somalia.

The second worst hit country after Indonesia is Sri Lanka: 35 000 dead, yet they also had several hours of warning between when it was known that a large tsunami was coming and when the wave struck. The world slowly wakes up to the devastation. Facebook had just started, and Twitter did not even exist, but videos of the wave ripping through tourist resorts and of people being swept away soon appear on the 24-hour news channels.

Again, questions were raised about why no one had any idea that giant waves were going to smash through buildings and kill thousands, despite hours of possible warning time. Why were the tsunamis seen as sudden and unexpected, with little scope for warning to save the 250 000 lives lost?

Considering that disaster is a long-term process, with vulnerabilities built up over a long time period, along with countermeasures, is it really fair to say that nothing could have stopped the deaths, even if the devastation to infrastructure would happen anyway? After all, Pacific tsunami warnings started in 1949. International coordination for tsunami warnings around the Pacific started in 1960. Why not the Indian Ocean as well?

Efforts began in the 1970s to create a regional tsunami warning system for the Indian Ocean, but the attempts failed. It was always too expensive, there were always other priorities, yet 18 months after a quarter of a million people died, the Indian Ocean tsunami warning system was operational. We are impressively talented at preventing the disaster which just happened. Now, parts of the warning system are lapsing due to funding shortfalls for maintenance. Other limitations are evident.

On 28th September 2018, a shallow earthquake in Indonesia led to landslides which caused local tsunamis, killing over 2 000 people with almost no warning. Just three months later, on 22nd December 2018, also in Indonesia, a volcano erupted. Parts of its slopes fell into the sea and the resulting tsunami caught people by surprise, killing several hundred. In both cases, typical signs of earthquake-generated tsunamis were absent or they left little time to respond, meaning that more localised warning systems are needed, especially factoring in different reasons why tsunamis occur.

As, on the 26th of December 2004, all these points and potential tsunamis were known long before the disaster, but they were not acted upon. Too many people are dying due to the lack of warnings when we know exactly what we ought to be doing and we've known it long before catastrophe struck.

This is true for tsunamis across the Indian Ocean, for highly localised waves, and for tsunamis in many other locations. We know the hazard is there, but we choose to do little about vulnerabilities to tsunamis. We make the choice to be uninterested in potential disasters or we make the choice to prioritise other topics and other actions.

Indian Ocean tsunami disasters do not happen due to a tsunami forming. They happen over the long-term due to choices made about tsunami vulnerabilities.

Why do more women than men die during most disasters? Let's explore the issue in the next episode of The Science of Disasters.

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